Eagles-Texans Same Game Parlay: NFL Player Prop Picks, Over/Under, Over, Using Parlay IQ for Thursday Night Football
Well, it’s gonna get ugly. The undefeated Philadelphia Eagles travel for an interconference battle with the Houston Texans to one victory. As expected, bettors can’t get enough of the Eagles, moving that line 4.5 points from the open, with the NFC East favorites currently ranked 14-point favorites. While the contest may be disappointing, we’ve highlighted a trio of player accessories worth investing in as the Week 9 action begins.
As usual, we used the Parlay Simulator ScoreAndOdds to develop a three-way bet that should yield positive results.
Eagles vs Texans Same Game Parlay Picks
For those unfamiliar, ScoresAndOdds recently released a new tool for setting up same-game parlays on various sportsbooks called Parlay IQ.
This simple to use tool quickly shows which bets have positive expected value (+EV) in any game based on their thousands of play simulations.
If you build a bet on the same game – when you add bets to your slip – the Parlay IQ tool will update with other bet suggestions that are most likely to hit based on your selected bets.
Now let’s get into what I’m aiming for tonight.
Dallas Goedert Anytime Touchdown Scorer +190
The Eagles are prone to offensive explosions, compiling the third most yards and points per game. On the contrary, the Texans’ defense is on the opposite end of the spectrum, trotting the third-worst total defense in the NFL. There will be offensive fireworks on Thursday, and Dallas Goedert will get a slice of the pie.
Although Jalen Hurts has plenty of elite options to distribute the ball, he’s starting to look like Goedert more consistently. The Philadelphia tight end has been targeted more than four times in the team’s first three games. Since then, he’s racked up six or more targets in four straight games.
According to ScoreAndOdds projections, this contributes to Goedert’s advantage as an all-time touchdown scorer, which is validated by the Eagles’ offensive patterns.
Philadelphia has been inside the red zone 27 times in seven games, which has been its bread and butter all season. Even though they have Devonta Smith and A.J. Brown as potential deep threats, they still run 76.3% of their games in the short (0-9 yards) to medium (10-19) yards. Additionally, 45.7% of those plays go to midfield.
This call play aligns with Goedert’s strengths. The former second-round pick has yet to come a deep road this season and is playing most of his snaps online, making him an ideal target for Hurts in the red zone. We bet Goedert will find money against the Texans on this basis.
Dallas Goedert Over 46.5 receiving yards
Goedert’s love doesn’t stop there, as we highlight another player accessory worth supporting ahead of Thursday Night Football at NRG Stadium.
As noted, Goedert has become a priority for Hurts in the Eagles’ offense, earning a larger target share compared to his recent sample. Since early October, Goedert has been targeted 23.3% of the time, down from 14.3% in the first three games of the season. This has led to an increase in production, a trend that is expected to continue in Houston.
In his last four games, Hurts has thrown Goedert’s path 27 times, with the former South Dakota State Jackrabbit having completed 21 of those passes. This resulted in increased yards and receptions per game, with Goedert tying or exceeding 64 receiving yards in three of four.
Increased use amplifies Goedert’s output, and there’s no sign of letting up. According to the ScoreAndOdds algorithm, there is a significant advantage in taking back Goedert’s 46.5 receiving yard prop.
Dameon Pierce Over 64.5 rushing yards
A half-empty perspective on the Texans is that they continue to flounder as one of the worst franchises in the league. The glass-half-full angle is that Houston has strong building blocks for the future and gets some much-needed reps for its newcomers. Among these is Dameon Piercewho rose to the front of the pack in the Offensive Rookie of the Year futures market.
The Texans have turned to their rookie more frequently in recent weeks, giving Pierce the ball 15 or more times in six straight games. The fourth-round pick has thrived with the increased workload, eclipsing 69 rushing yards in five of those six outings while averaging 4.6 yards per carry.
Thursday night’s game against the Eagles provides an ideal rebound spot for Pierce after last week’s disappointing 35-yard rushing effort, in which he averaged just 2.3 yards per carry. Given his division of labor and improved play, we expect a more robust performance at home against a short-rested Eagles defense.
This advantage is also reflected in our projections, which support that Pierce is a strong candidate to overtake his rushing court prop. The Texans have unlocked Pierce’s potential, and there’s no slowing down now.
The screenshot above is the bet slip on ScoresAndOdds. The screenshot below is the bet slip on FanDuel, after clicking on the “Place Bets” shortcut:
As you can see, there is an advantage to using all three aforementioned props in the SameGame Parlay. ScoreAndOdds projections imply that this bet should have a price of +488, while FanDuel Sportsbook suspends the bet at +685. From an implied probability perspective, this leaves bettors with a 5.9% edge that is worth playing on Thursday Night Football.
Happy sweating and good luck!